When people first see the Tension War Index, a common question appears almost instantly. Why 300 points? Why not a simple 0 to 100 scale like most indexes? The short answer is clarity. The long answer explains why a 100 point scale actually breaks the logic of conflict analysis. The problem with a 100 point scale Our index is built around three fundamentally different phases of escalation: Tension Limited War Full Scale War A 100 point scale cannot be divided cleanly into thr

We are introducing several important updates designed to strengthen clarity, reinforce identity, and provide a deeper understanding of conflict dynamics across the Tension-War Index. These improvements do not simply refresh the interface - they expand how users perceive and interpret the state of an ongoing conflict. 1. A new logo shaped around meaning, not decoration Our redesigned logo combines two elements: crossed swords  and a three-stage escalation arc . The swords are

Starting tomorrow, the Tension & War Index (TWI) will use a new 0–300 scale with three defined stages of conflict intensity: 0–99: Tension 100–199: Limited War 200–300: Full-Scale War This is an important step in improving how the index reflects real-world conflict dynamics. Why we are updating the scale The original two-level system (Tension and War) worked for early versions of the project, yet it became clear that global conflicts rarely jump directly from political pressu

Periods of apparent calm are often interpreted as moments of stability. When frontline activity slows and headlines quiet down, many assume the risk of escalation is fading. Yet the Tension and War Index (TWI) sometimes moves up , not down, precisely during these calm-looking intervals. This effect is known as the silent escalatory background  — a phase in which surface-level quiet masks deeper shifts that can increase long-term tension. The index is designed to capture these

Diplomacy is often viewed as the natural path toward de-escalation. When headlines mention talks, ceasefire proposals, or shuttle diplomacy, most observers expect the situation to calm down. Yet in many conflicts, the Tension and War Index (TWI) does not  immediately decline when negotiations take place. In some cases, it even rises. This is not a contradiction — it reflects how real geopolitical systems behave. Negotiations may improve long-term prospects, but in the short t