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Index Explanation
A section that clarifies how the Tension and War Index works. Here we break down key signals, hidden factors, and conflict dynamics, explaining why the index moves in one direction or another.
Why the Tension War Index Uses a 300 Point Scale Instead of 100
When people first see the Tension War Index, a common question appears almost instantly. Why 300 points? Why not a simple 0 to 100 scale like most indexes? The short answer is clarity. The long answer explains why a 100 point scale actually breaks the logic of conflict analysis. The problem with a 100 point scale Our index is built around three fundamentally different phases of escalation: Tension Limited War Full Scale War A 100 point scale cannot be divided cleanly into thr
23 hours ago2 min read
Why the Index Rises When Everything Looks Calm: The Paradox of the “Silent Escalatory Background”
Periods of apparent calm are often interpreted as moments of stability. When frontline activity slows and headlines quiet down, many assume the risk of escalation is fading. Yet the Tension and War Index (TWI) sometimes moves up , not down, precisely during these calm-looking intervals. This effect is known as the silent escalatory background — a phase in which surface-level quiet masks deeper shifts that can increase long-term tension. The index is designed to capture these
5 days ago3 min read
Why Active Negotiations Don’t Always Lower the Index — and Sometimes Even Raise It
Diplomacy is often viewed as the natural path toward de-escalation. When headlines mention talks, ceasefire proposals, or shuttle diplomacy, most observers expect the situation to calm down. Yet in many conflicts, the Tension and War Index (TWI) does not immediately decline when negotiations take place. In some cases, it even rises. This is not a contradiction — it reflects how real geopolitical systems behave. Negotiations may improve long-term prospects, but in the short t
6 days ago3 min read
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