Why the Index Rises When Everything Looks Calm: The Paradox of the “Silent Escalatory Background”

Periods of apparent calm are often interpreted as moments of stability. When frontline activity slows and headlines quiet down, many assume the risk of escalation is fading. Yet the Tension and War Index (TWI) sometimes moves up, not down, precisely during these calm-looking intervals.

This effect is known as the silent escalatory background — a phase in which surface-level quiet masks deeper shifts that can increase long-term tension. The index is designed to capture these signals even when they are not obvious to the general public.

Here is why calm periods can be misleading — and why the index may rise when the conflict appears to be cooling.

1. Calm on the Surface Can Hide Structural Escalation

A drop in visible activity does not mean a drop in underlying tension.Conflicts often enter a phase where less is happening publicly, but more is happening behind the scenes.

Examples include:

• repositioning of artillery or air-defense units,

• reinforcement of supply routes,

• silent buildup of ammunition stockpiles,

• intelligence-driven preparations for future operations.

These actions do not appear in headlines, but they directly increase the potential for renewed escalation.

The index reflects this deeper layer, not only immediate events.

2. Mobilization and Force Expansion Continue During “Quiet” Phases

Governments often intensify recruitment, mobilization, or training when active fighting slows. These processes dramatically alter the conflict landscape but rarely generate media noise.

Mobilization indicators typically increase the index because they:

• expand the pool of deployable forces,

• reduce the cost of future offensives,

• signal long-term commitment to military objectives.

This dynamic is visible in conflicts like Russia–Ukraine, where relatively calm intervals sometimes precede large-scale military movements or policy decisions

3. Legislative and Political Changes Signal Future Intentions

“Quiet” periods often coincide with significant internal decisions:

• new conscription laws,

• budget increases for defense,

• legal frameworks for wartime measures,

• shifts in political rhetoric.

These decisions do not produce immediate battlefield effects, yet they reshape the strategic environment.TWI integrates these signals because they influence long-term escalation potential.

4. Sanctions and External Pressure Can Amplify Instability

Economic pressure — sanctions, export controls, financial restrictions — is not always visible day-to-day, but it can increase strategic tension.

External pressure may push actors toward:

• accelerated self-sufficiency in defense,

• assertive foreign policy responses,

• hardened negotiating positions.

The index captures not only military events but the full ecosystem of tension, including economic and political stress factors.

5. Rear-Area Activity Intensifies When Frontlines Slow Down

Calm at the frontline often means activity shifts to the rear:

• logistics optimization,

• fortification construction,

• production surges in military industries,

• deployment of new technologies or weapon systems.

These preparations increase the capacity for escalation, even if no immediate escalation occurs.

As a result, apparent quiet can be a precursor to major movements.

6. Information Silence Does Not Equal Stability

Some actors intentionally reduce public communication to mask their intentions or to prepare strategic surprises.A decrease in news volume often reflects information opacity, not reduced risk.

The index is not influenced by media silence — it evaluates the underlying patterns.

7. Calm Periods Often Precede Strategic Turning Points

Historically, many conflicts show the same pattern:

A period of calm → unusual logistical / political activity in the background → sudden escalation.

This pattern appears because actors use quiet moments to reposition, consolidate, or prepare for shifts that require operational secrecy.

The index is sensitive to these signals.

Conclusion

What looks like calm from the outside can be a period of intense transformation underneath.Mobilization, legislative shifts, sanctions, logistical buildup, and political recalibration often accelerate precisely when the surface grows quiet.

This is why the Tension and War Index may rise during apparent lulls:the system is becoming more capable of escalation even if it is not yet acting on that capability.

By tracking these silent drivers, the index offers a clearer and more realistic assessment of conflict dynamics — especially in long-running conflicts such as Russia–Ukraine, where quiet phases frequently mask structural escalatory processes.