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Russia vs Ukraine
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Tension started: 2014-02-20
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Limited war started: 2014-04-12
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Full-scale war started: 2022-02-24
Tension and War Index
Current TWI
Historical Data
Analytics and updates
THE RUSSO-UKRAINIAN WAR (DECEMBER 24, 2025)
1.1 The inflection Point of Winter 2025 December 24, 2025, represents a definitive operational and strategic inflection point in the forty-seventh month of the Russo-Ukrainian War. The twenty-four-hour period covered by this assessment was characterized not merely by high-intensity kinetic exchanges but by the crystallization of long-term strategic trends that will define the conflict's trajectory into 2026. The convergence of a massive, complex aerial offensive by the Russia
Dec 25, 202510 min read
Russia-Ukraine Conflict Update: Diplomacy Advances Amid Ongoing Strikes on December 14, 2025
The Russia-Ukraine war continues into its fourth year with a mix of intense battlefield action and promising diplomatic efforts. On December 14, high-level talks in Berlin brought Ukrainian and U.S. officials together for extended discussions on ending the conflict. At the same time, both sides exchanged strikes on critical infrastructure, highlighting the challenges in achieving lasting peace. This report examines the day's key developments, from frontline reports to negotia
Dec 15, 20252 min read
Russia-Ukraine War Update: December 11, 2025
Frontline Flashpoints: Grinding Advances and Record Drone Swarms The Donetsk theater remains the war's crucible, where incremental Russian gains exact staggering costs. Geolocated footage from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) confirms Russian forces seizing Siversk after months of flanking assaults, raising flags across the ruined town and positioning for a push toward Sloviansk. Southern Grouping Commander Lt. Gen. Sergei Medvedev hailed the victory, crediting drone-
Dec 12, 20253 min read
Russia-Ukraine War Update: Escalation in the Black Sea, Diplomatic Deadlock, and the Fight for Winter Survival
As the Russia Ukraine conflict enters its fourth exhausting year, December 10, 2025 delivered a volatile mix of frontline clashes, naval escalation, and high pressure diplomacy. Ukrainian sea drones crippled another vessel of Russia’s shadow fleet, while Moscow rejected any form of energy truce. Trump's peace push collided with European red lines and Zelenskyy's refusal to concede territory. The path to resolution remains narrow. This update highlights the day's key developme
Dec 11, 20254 min read
Ukraine's Blackout Crisis Deepens: December 9, 2025 – Russian Strikes Plunge Capital into Darkness as Zelenskyy Bows to Trump's Election Demands
December 9, 2025 pushed Ukraine deeper into winter under fire. Russian missiles and drones struck energy infrastructure across Kyiv and seven regions, leaving more than 600,000 people without power as temperatures dropped below zero. Emergency rationing was introduced as electricity imports surged and street lighting was reduced to preserve supply. At the same time, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy made a move that shifted the political narrative. He signaled conditional readine
Dec 10, 20254 min read
Europe Rallies Behind Ukraine as Trump Pressures Zelensky: December 8, 2025 Analysis
European leaders mounted a coordinated diplomatic response on December 8, 2025, as President Donald Trump escalated his pressure on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to accept territorial concessions to end the nearly four-year war with Russia. In rapid-fire meetings across London and Brussels, the leaders of Britain, France, and Germany joined with top NATO and EU officials to affirm Ukraine's sovereignty and reject any peace settlement requiring territorial surrender—s
Dec 9, 20255 min read
Another Massive Attack on Ukraine, Trump Criticizes Zelensky: December 7, 2025 Analysis
The Russia-Ukraine conflict reached a new level of complexity and danger on December 7, 2025, as three parallel crises converged: Russia launched another massive aerial bombardment within 36 hours of the previous attack, President Donald Trump publicly criticized Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for allegedly not reading the US peace proposal, and international nuclear inspectors confirmed that Chornobyl's protective radiation shield has permanently lost its safety func
Dec 8, 20258 min read
Russia Unleashes Fourth-Largest Attack on Ukraine as Peace Talks Stall: December 6, 2025 Analysis
The Russia-Ukraine conflict reached a critical intensity point on December 6, 2025, as Moscow launched one of the war's largest aerial bombardments while US-mediated peace negotiations continued in Miami. The attack involved 704 munitions targeting critical energy infrastructure across Ukraine, causing widespread damage and raising serious nuclear safety concerns at the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. The Scale of December 6 Attack Russia deployed 653 drone
Dec 7, 20254 min read
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