TWI Moves to a New 0–300 Scale With Three Conflict Levels

Starting tomorrow, the Tension & War Index (TWI) will use a new 0–300 scale with three defined stages of conflict intensity:

0–99: Tension

100–199: Limited War

200–300: Full-Scale War

This is an important step in improving how the index reflects real-world conflict dynamics.

Why we are updating the scale

The original two-level system (Tension and War) worked for early versions of the project, yet it became clear that global conflicts rarely jump directly from political pressure to full-scale warfare. Many situations exist between these two extremes.

A good example is the Donbas conflict from 2014 to 2021. It involved frequent artillery strikes, local offensives, drone attacks and regular casualties. It was far more than political tension, yet not a full conventional war. The old scale could not describe this middle zone with enough precision.

The new three-level model matches how conflict researchers describe intensity in academic datasets such as UCDP and ACLED. It also improves clarity for users who follow daily fluctuations of the index.

What the new scale improves

Better interpretation of conflict phasesThe index can now separate early escalation, ongoing limited warfare and transitions to full-scale operations.

Better alignment with scientific methodologyThe new structure mirrors how political science defines conflict intensity. This increases the analytical value and credibility of TWI.

Clearer day-to-day signals for usersMovement from 120 to 160 now means strengthening limited warfare, not a vague rise. A shift from 190 to 210 signals entry into the full-scale zone.

Foundation for future analytical featuresThe 0–300 range gives us space to refine predictions, risk indicators and long-term patterns.

Temporary calibration period

Over the next few weeks we will calibrate and restructure parts of our analytical engine to match the new scale. This may lead to small fluctuations in accuracy during the transition. Once calibration is complete, the index will become more stable and consistent than before.