Daily Conflict Analysis. Russia–Ukraine War, November 17, 2025

Russia launched a major aerial assault on Ukraine, deploying over 400 drones and nearly 20 missiles to target energy infrastructure and civilian areas, killing at least six in Kyiv and causing widespread blackouts. This attack, one of the largest in months, signals Moscow's intent to cripple Ukraine's power grid ahead of winter. Ukrainian forces responded with drone strikes on Russian oil refineries and a chemical plant, disrupting fuel supplies without reported casualties.

Key Events in the Last 24 Hours

• Russian drone and missile barrage hits energy sites across regions, killing 6 civilians and injuring 35 in Kyiv.

• Ukrainian drones strike Rosneft refinery in Samara and facilities in Kursk, targeting Russian energy assets.

• Intense frontline clashes in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia; Russia claims advances near Pokrovsk, Ukraine reports counteroffensives.

• Sabotage on Polish rail line to Ukraine denounced as "unprecedented," with links to Russian hybrid warfare.

• Zelenskyy pursues French Rafale jets; prisoner swap talks advance.

Escalation Dynamics

Russia's strikes on critical infrastructure escalate pressure, aiming to erode Ukrainian morale and force negotiations amid winter hardships. Ukrainian deep strikes into Russia risk provoking retaliation, but demonstrate resilience. No cyber or nuclear escalations noted, though hybrid threats like Polish sabotage highlight broadening tactics.

Europe faces spillover risks, with energy disruptions and sabotage underscoring the need for unified defenses.

Tension–War Index Update

Index at 155, reflecting sustained high-intensity conflict with infrastructure targeting as a key escalator. Justification: Frequent high-significance events maintain war-range baseline; no de-escalation offsets winter vulnerabilities.

Short-Term Outlook (7 Days)

Escalation risk: High De-escalation potential: Low

Expected trajectory: ↑