Daily Conflict Analysis — Russia–Ukraine War, November 18 November 2025

The Russia–Ukraine war maintains active combat intensity, with Russian forces focusing assaults on Pokrovsk in Donetsk while Ukrainian defenders hold key positions. No major aerial barrages reported in the past 24 hours, marking a relative lull after recent infrastructure strikes. Frontline attrition continues amid diplomatic efforts on prisoner swaps.

Key Events in the Last 24 Hours

• Ukrainian forces repelled 40 Russian assaults in Pokrovsk sector, including near Lysivka and Udachne.

• Russian infiltration attempts noted in northern Pokrovsk and Siversk; no decisive gains confirmed.

• Clashes in Lyman and Sloviansk directions; Ukrainian counterattacks reported.

• Ongoing preparations for prisoner exchange between sides.

• EU and NATO reaffirm commitments to sanctions and aid for Ukraine.

Escalation Dynamics

Russian offensive operations emphasize grinding advances in Donetsk, exploiting infiltration amid weather challenges. Ukrainian defenses stabilize key hubs like Pokrovsk, inflicting high costs. Absence of large strikes suggests tactical pause, but sustained pressure risks renewed infrastructure targeting. International support focuses on long-term resilience.

Tension–War Index Update

Index at 152, within active war baseline. Justification: High-frequency assaults without breakthrough maintain elevated tempo; no critical escalators present.

Short-Term Outlook (7 Days)

Escalation risk: Medium De-escalation potential: Low Expected trajectory: →